A modelling framework for evaluation of the hydrological impacts of nature‐based approaches to flood risk management,with application to in‐channel interventions across a 29‐km2 scale catchment in the United Kingdom          下载免费PDF全文

Peter Metcalfe  Keith Beven  Barry Hankin  Rob Lamb 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1734-1748

Nature‐based approaches to flood risk management are increasing in popularity. Evidence for the effectiveness at the catchment scale of such spatially distributed upstream measures is inconclusive. However, it also remains an open question whether, under certain conditions, the individual impacts of a collection of flood mitigation interventions could combine to produce a detrimental effect on runoff response. A modelling framework is presented for evaluation of the impacts of hillslope and in‐channel natural flood management interventions. It couples an existing semidistributed hydrological model with a new, spatially explicit, hydraulic channel network routing model. The model is applied to assess a potential flood mitigation scheme in an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire, United Kingdom, comprising various configurations of a single variety of in‐channel feature. The hydrological model is used to generate subsurface and surface fluxes for a flood event in 2012. The network routing model is then applied to evaluate the response to the addition of up to 59 features. Additional channel and floodplain storage of approximately 70,000 m³ is seen with a reduction of around 11% in peak discharge. Although this might be sufficient to reduce flooding in moderate events, it is inadequate to prevent flooding in the double‐peaked storm of the magnitude that caused damage within the catchment in 2012. Some strategies using features specific to this catchment are suggested in order to improve the attenuation that could be achieved by applying a nature‐based approach.  相似文献   

Groundwater – the disregarded component in lake water and nutrient budgets. Part 2: effects of groundwater on nutrients          下载免费PDF全文

Jörg Lewandowski  Karin Meinikmann  Gunnar Nützmann  Donald O. Rosenberry 《水文研究》2015,29(13):2922-2955

Lacustrine groundwater discharge (LGD) transports nutrients from a catchment to a lake, which may fuel eutrophication, one of the major threats to our fresh waters. Unfortunately, LGD has often been disregarded in lake nutrient studies. Most measurement techniques are based on separate determinations of volume and nutrient concentration of LGD: Loads are calculated by multiplying seepage volumes by concentrations of exfiltrating water. Typically low phosphorus (P) concentrations of pristine groundwater often are increased due to anthropogenic sources such as fertilizer, manure or sewage. Mineralization of naturally present organic matter might also increase groundwater P. Reducing redox conditions favour P transport through the aquifer to the reactive aquifer‐lake interface. In some cases, large decreases of P concentrations may occur at the interface, for example, due to increased oxygen availability, while in other cases, there is nearly no decrease in P. The high reactivity of the interface complicates quantification of groundwater‐borne P loads to the lake, making difficult clear differentiation of internal and external P loads to surface water. Anthropogenic sources of nitrogen (N) in groundwater are similar to those of phosphate. However, the environmental fate of N differs fundamentally from P because N occurs in several different redox states, each with different mobility. While nitrate behaves essentially conservatively in most oxic aquifers, ammonium's mobility is similar to that of phosphate. Nitrate may be transformed to gaseous N₂ in reducing conditions and permanently removed from the system. Biogeochemical turnover of N is common at the reactive aquifer‐lake interface. Nutrient loads from LGD were compiled from the literature. Groundwater‐borne P loads vary from 0.74 to 2900 mg PO₄‐P m^?2 year^?1; for N, these loads vary from 0.001 to 640 g m^?2 year^?1. Even small amounts of seepage can carry large nutrient loads due to often high nutrient concentrations in groundwater. Large spatial heterogeneity, uncertain areal extent of the interface and difficult accessibility make every determination of LGD a challenge. However, determinations of LGD are essential to effective lake management. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

舟山渔场软体生物中PCBs的残留及潜在生态风险          下载免费PDF全文

潘永强  薛斌  张慎伟  黄子茵 《海洋学研究》2018,36(2):92-98

本文测定了舟山渔场附近6个沿海城市5种软体动物体内多氯联苯的污染水平,并进一步探讨了其潜在来源以及生态风险。结果显示,样品中PCBs的总含量水平为18.0~95.9 ng/g干重,平均含量为51.9 ng/g干重,与世界其他海域相比处于中等污染水平。组分分析表明,五氯联苯和二氯联苯为主要组成。PCBs的健康风险HR值均远低于1,表明日常食用不会对人体健康产生明显危害。  相似文献   

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction     

Bin Ye  Jingjing Jiang  Junguo Liu  Yi Zheng  Nan Zhou 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2011

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.  相似文献   

沉积物中磷的赋存形态及磷形态顺序提取分析方法   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10  

许春雪  袁建  王亚平  王苏明  代阿芳 《岩矿测试》2011,30(6):785-794

阐述了当前我国水体富营养化的现状,水体的富营养化与水体中磷、氮的浓度以及二者的浓度比值有着密切的关系。水体富营养化时氮和磷的浓度均很高,但没有一个固定的值,是在一个较宽泛的富营养范围内,氮和磷的浓度比值大多在10∶1～20∶1。湖泊沉积物作为湖泊水体中磷的重要蓄积库,是湖泊流域磷循环的重要归属,也是湖泊水体内源性磷的主要来源,沉积物中极少量的稳定磷转化为活性磷就会造成湖泊水体富营养化。文中介绍了沉积物中无机磷形态的分类,评述了欧盟标准局在研制湖泊沉积物磷形态标准物质时比对采用的4种提取方法(Willimas法、Hieltjes-Lijklema法、Ruttenberg法、Golterman法),总结了国内外学者所应用的沉积物中磷的各种形态提取方法和磷各形态的分析测定方法,国内学者应用的方法是在国外学者方法的基础上提出的,阐述了顺序提取方法及其地球化学意义。简要评述了湖泊沉积物中磷的生物释放、物理释放和化学释放三种释放机制,这三种释放机制相辅相成,在一特定的环境条件下某一过程可能占主导地位来控制沉积物磷的释放。最后提出应该加强对沉积物中磷的各种形态的专属提取剂及其提取有效性的分子表征和检测,更加细化对于沉积物中磷形态的分类和创新各种磷形态的分析方法,建立沉积物-水体磷的迁移、循环和转化模型,这对于从根本上解决富营养化问题具有重要意义。  相似文献   

三门湾近五十年来富营养化的沉积记录     

杨丹  沈奕红  姚龙奎  夏平  杨义菊  潘建明 《沉积学报》2011,29(2):346-353

沿海(特别是河口港湾)富营养化已成为当前海洋环境的一个突出问题.以人类活动影响下的典型海湾--三门湾为研究对象,对三门湾湾内(SM-3)及湾口(SM-17)沉积物柱状样品进行研究,采用210Pb对SM-17沉积柱进行年代测定,建立年代标尺.通过对两个沉积柱多化学指标变化特征(有机碳、总氮、总磷和生物硅分布特征、生源要素...  相似文献   

黑龙江省暴雪时空分布特征与发生风险研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

张丽娟  陈红  刘栋  张利  周东颖 《冰川冻土》2011,33(4):721-728

暴雪是黑龙江省常见的灾害性天气之一,基于1970～2006年黑龙江省78个市（县）的逐日降雪资料,对暴雪初、终日分布规律,暴雪的时间、空间分布特征进行分析,采用信息扩散理论计算了各市（县）发生不同暴雪日数的概率风险估计值,并结合GIS技术进行风险区划．研究表明：黑龙江省暴雪初始日期和终止日期37a来变化不大,初始日出现...  相似文献   

我国矿业资本市场风险投资浅析     

吕朋林  胥碧华 《矿产与地质》2011,25(1):85-88

矿产资源是国民经济和社会发展的重要物质基础,矿产资源的勘探、开发利用对国民经济的持续发展起到重要的保障和促进作用.而我国矿业企业正处于一个全新的发展时期,上市难度大,还需不断完善矿业资本市场,加速发展矿业资本市场风险投资以解决日益凸昱的资金缺乏问题,促进我国矿业企业发展为具有国际竞争力的矿业集团.  相似文献   

南水北调中线降水丰枯遭遇风险分析   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

康玲  何小聪 《水科学进展》2011,22(1):44-50

受降水丰枯变化不确定性和差异性的影响,南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区降水的丰枯遭遇状态各不相同,给南水北调工程水资源调度运行带来风险。联合copula函数和贝叶斯网络理论,建立了南水北调中线工程水源区和受水区降水丰枯遭遇风险分析模型,对南水北调中线工程调水最不利的丰枯遭遇风险概率进行了研究。利用copula函数建立了水源区和受水区年降水量联合分布函数,计算条件概率,结合贝叶斯网络进行丰枯遭遇风险分析。结果表明南水北调中线4个受水区调水风险的概率均在25%以下,并对不同情景的调水风险进行了仿真分析。  相似文献   

Human Health Risk Assessment Model of Organic Pollution in Groundwater: Shijiazhuang Industrial Zone     

YANG Mei  FEI Yuhong  JU Yiwen  and LI Huaqi 《《地质学报》英文版》2011,85(6):1508-1517

In this study, a risk-based management model is developed and applied to an industrial zone. The models proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency and Han Bing have been improved by adding a residual ratio of volatile organic compounds (VOC) after boiling and deleting the related parameters in half-life. Using this improved model, an integrated process was used to assess human health risk level in the study area. Compared with water quality analysis, the results highlight the importance of applying an integrated approach for decision making on risk levels and water protection. The results of this study demonstrated that: (1) Compared with these permissible level standards in China (GB 3838-2002) and National Primary Drinking Water Regulations of the United States, the residents’ daily life had not been affected by the groundwater in this area (except for relative bad water quality of HB3-4 and HB3-6); (2) The typical detected organic contaminants of all groundwater samples were chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethene, and the pollution sources were mainly industrial sources by preliminary investigations; (3) As for groundwater, the non-carcinogenic risk values of all samples do not exceed the permissible level of 1.0 and the carcinogenic risk values are relatively lower than the permissible level of 1.00E-06 to 1.00E-04; (4) Drinking water pathway of trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene mainly contribute to increasing the health risk of residents’ in study areas; (5) In terms of non-carcinogenic risk and carcinogenic risk, the health risk order for drinking water pathway and dermal contact pathway was: drinking water pathway > dermal contact pathway.  相似文献